Saturday, October 25, 2008

Electoral College Math

Let's do some mathematics. No politics, just math. Simple math based upon all the latest polling data.


Today, there are 22 states solidly for McCain. Broadly speaking, those include Appalachia, the Deep South Bible Belt, Tornado Alley, and the middle Western states.

Obama has 23, counting the District of Columbia: All of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, the Pacific coast, the Beer Belt states surrounding Lake Michigan, plus New Mexico.

That leaves six toss up states, and it should come as no surprise that they include Florida and Ohio, plus Colorado, North Carolina, Nevada, and Missouri.

I think most people covering the polls would agree that this is a pretty accurate position of how things currently stand, and how the states may likely go.

Scenario #1: McCain's Best Hope


I give ALL those toss-up states to McCain. Every single one of them goes to him. The Great Schlep fails to deliver Florida. The Bradley Effect sneaks into the Ohio polling places. Colorado stays red because the Latinos stayed home.

In this scenario, McCain's most realistic hope, guess what? McCain loses. By nine votes.


Scenario #2: My Prediction


This is what I really think will happen. I give McCain Ohio and Missouri. I wrestled about Ohio, because it could go for Obama, but I think it will be close. So, I give the benefit of that doubt to McCain. But Obama gets Florida, North Carolina, Nevada and definitely Colorado.

Obama crushes McCain: 333 to 205. This, folks, is my prediction, so let us wait and see how I do.


Scenario #3: The Morning After

Now, to be fair, how can McCain win? He needs to win ONE of the following two states:

Virginia or Pennsylvania.

If he wins just one of those states, plus ALL the toss ups, he's done it. But, if he fails to win either Virginia or Pennsylvania, it's over. You can turn off the TV on election night and go to bed early. No need to wait up watching CNN or Fox News until 2am. If Pennsylvania and Virginia go Obama, McCain cannot win.

Now, the most important message in all of this is that the only thing to screw all this up will be if you don't vote. Everyone must vote! Don't get complacent. VOTE!

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

*

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Are you a Partisan?

Should they give their view......?

Barry said...

I tried to vote this morning with the kids, since I may be on travel for election day. We got to the government center in Fairfax got inside and then saw the line of well over 100 people waiting to vote.

With the kids in tow I wasn't prepared to wait several hours to vote. Will have to try again over the week

JamesF said...

While I don't disagree with your off the cuff analysis, check out this guy who is running literally thousands of simulations. The results basically say unless there's a large change in public opinion Obama is going to win handily.

I will say for some reason McCain seem to be increasing a bit in the polls recently (probably because for a change he's not always being completely negative recently).

Scott said...

I believe that's called a "dead cat bounce."

Chuck said...

A good succinct analysis. There's lots more detailed analysis, and yes, Nate Silver is some kind of polling god, and his site is addictive, but a nice simple layout is welcome.

Provided everybody gets out and votes we're probably headed into landslide territory next week. If the election goes the same way as early voting has, McPain is going to wind up looking like Dukakis.

Scott said...

I've got my fingers and every other appendage crossed.

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